发布日期：2024-01-25
Journal of Policy Modeling┃张洪振 何凌云 张中祥：政策能否实现环境公平和环境改善？来自中国新安江横向生态补偿项目的证据
河北大学管理学院讲师张洪振博士、暨南大学经济学院何凌云教授与天津大学马寅初经济学院创院院长张中祥教授合作的文章“政策能否实现环境公平和环境改善？基于中国新安江横向生态补偿项目的证据”（Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China）近日被Elsevier出版社出版的Journal of Policy Modeling接受并在线发表。
环境不平等，特别是国家内部区域间的环境不平等，不仅会影响污染治理的整体效果，还会导致落后地区陷入“环境贫困”陷阱，加剧区域间的收入和健康不平等。在中国，区域经济发展不平衡的同时也伴随着严重的区域间环境不平等且趋势不断加剧，特别是落后地区承担的环境治理成本更大。为了实现环境治理的公平和效率，基于“谁污染、谁治理”和“受益者付费”的横向生态补偿机制（TECM）在中国各流域全面推广。横向生态补偿机制的环境和生态效应已被广泛认识，但其对区域环境公平的影响却被忽视。那么，横向生态补偿机制能否实现环境治理和环境公平的双重红利？
针对上述问题，本文以新安江流域横向生态补偿试点作为准自然实验，应用双重差分策略实证考察横向生态补偿机制对区域内环境不平等的差异化影响和作用机制，并在此基础上讨论横向生态补偿机制的相关政策启示。研究结果表明，除了种族、收入、工作性质等因素外，环境政策也可能造成环境不平等。具体而言，横向生态补偿机制试点实施后，较为落后的上游地区相对贫困加剧，环境保护者和环境受益者之间的收入差距显著扩大。并且，影响机制检验结果表明增加上游居民短期福利损失补偿以及产业结构升级等多元化补偿方案，是抑制横向生态补偿机制不平等效应的关键。
本文的边际贡献主要体现在以下方面。首先，本文丰富了横向生态补偿机制（生态补偿）相关文献。现有横向生态补偿机制研究主要关注其环境治理效果，忽视了其经济和社会效应，特别是对环境公平的影响。基于环境公平视角对横向生态补偿机制如何影响区域环境公平提供了首个实证证据。其次，政策工具同样是造成环境不平等的重要力量。现有的环境不平等研究大多主要基于污染的视角，探索不同性别、群体和职业之间环境污染的差异影响，鲜有探讨政府环境政策造成的区域间环境不平等及其解决方案。本文的研究结果表明，除了种族、收入、工作性质等外，环境政策也是地区间环境不平等的主要因素。在当前发展中国家环境污染持续改善，环境不平等等结构性问题日益突出的背景下，研究结果对于致力于实现“环境改善”和“环境公平”双重红利的政策制定者具有重要意义。
1979年创刊、被EconLit/SSCI收录的Journal of Policy Modeling经济学期刊是Society for Policy Modeling会刊，多位诺贝尔经济学奖得主兼任其顾问委员会委员。自1996年7月第一篇文章被接受起，张中祥教授在该刊已发表8篇文章。同时，张中祥以“气候变化和能源政策”为专题2009年曾为该刊主编了一期特刊，收录了包括时任威尼斯大学校长Carlo Carraro教授,MIT斯隆商学院Henry Jacoby教授,美国经济学会前会长、哈佛大学经济系Dale Jorgenson教授（2023年逝世）,澳大利亚国立大学Warwick McKibbin教授,普林斯顿大学Stephen Pacala教授,MIT斯隆商学院John Reilly教授,普林斯顿大学Robert Socolow教授,Energy Economics主编Richard Tol教授等世界顶尖学者在该领域的最新研究成果。该特刊收录于该刊2009年第31卷、第3期、359-477页。
Can policy achieve environmental fairness and environmental improvement?
Evidence from the Xin’an River project in China
Journal of Policy Modeling
Hong-Zhen Zhang, Ling-Yun He, ZhongXiang Zhang*
Abstract: In a river basin across regions, is environmental improvement in downstream areas based on actions that negatively impact economic development and social welfare in upstream areas? This paper takes the pilot of Transverse Eco-compensation Mechanism (TECM) in Xin'an River of China as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the impact of TECM on environmental inequality. We find that the government’s environmental policy may lead to more environmental inequality，which is often overlooked. Our results show that the pilot of TECM depresses the upstream economy, reduces upstream resident income, especially rural residents, and widens the regional income gap between the upstream and downstream. Heterogeneous tests confirm our findings. Our mechanism test shows that the industries’ shutting down and relocation are the main driving forces for the regional environmental inequality in the short term. Therefore, in implementing future TECM, the upstream government needs to pay attention to the economic slowdown and the subsequent unemployment and resident welfare loss. The central and downstream governments should help the upstream regions upgrade the industrial structure, rather than just pay compensation funds, thereby reducing the resulting environmental inequality. Our findings have important policy implications for the treatment of trans-regional river pollution.
Keywords: Transverse eco-compensation, Environmental regulation, Environmental inequality, Difference-in-differences
JEL classification: Q53; Q56; Q58; O13
文章全文参见链接：
Zhang, H., He, L. and Z.X. Zhang* (2024), Can Policy Achieve Environmental Fairness and Environmental Improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River Project in China, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 46.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823001278
张中祥教授为Journal of Policy Modeling主编的特刊和在上面发表的文章
特刊
Zhang, Z.X. (2009, Guest Editor), Climate Change and Energy Policy, Special Issue of Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 359-477.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-policy-modeling/vol/31/issue/3
文章
Zhang, Z.X. (1998), Macroeconomic Effects of CO2 Emission Limits: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for China, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 213-250.
Zhang, Z.X. (2002), The Economic Effects of An Alternative EU Emissions Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 24, pp. 667-677.
Zhang, Z.X. (2004), Meeting the Kyoto Targets: The Importance of Developing Country Participation, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 3-19.
Zhang, Z.X. (2009), An Economic Model-based Analysis of Climate and Energy Policy, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 359-361.
Wu, L., Li, J. and Z.X. Zhang* (2013), Inflationary Effect of Oil-price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 354-369.
Zhu, L., Zhang*, Z.X. and Y. Fan (2015), Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty: How to Make Informed Decisions?, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 37, No. 5, pp. 742-762.
He, L., Lin, X. and Z.X. Zhang* (2020), The Impact of De-globalization on China’s Economic Transformation: Evidence from Manufacturing Export, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 628-660.
Zhang, H., He, L. and Z.X. Zhang* (2024), Can Policy Achieve Environmental Fairness and Environmental Improvement? Evidence from the Xin’an River Project in China, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 46.
