Energy Economics┃吴建新 何凌云 张中祥：中国 PM2.5污染与收入的共同演化：基于联合性分布动力学方法的研究

暨南大学经济学院吴建新和何凌云教授与天津大学马寅初经济学院创院院长、卓越教授，国家能源、环境和产业经济研究院院长张中祥合作的文章“On the co-evolution of PM_2.5 concentrations and income in China: A joint distribution dynamics approach”(中国 PM_2.5污染与收入的共同演化：基于联合性分布动力学方法的研究)在Elsevier出版社出版的Energy Economics发表，收录在该刊卷105，文章编号105706。

该文采用联合性分布动态方法，结合2000-2018 年期间中国285个地级以上城市PM_2.5浓度和收入水平的面板数据，研究了收入与PM_2.5浓度之间的长期关系。静态和动态的分布分析都表明，中国城市在PM_2.5污染和收入水平的分布中存在显著的“贫困-环境陷阱”，即如果保持现有的发展趋势不变，部分中国城市将长期处于高污染和低收入的状况。这一现象形成的主要原因是污染的溢出效应，即低收入的城市受到了高收入、高污染相邻城市的影响。然而，其他两种污染物（二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放）与收入之间并不存在这种现象。与传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线不同，基于遍历分布（ergodic distribution）的长期研究结果还发现，中国城市收入与PM_2.5浓度之间的存在明显的多重均衡（multi-equilibrium）。因此，收入与环境污染之间的关系可能比环境库兹涅茨曲线所预测的要复杂很多，环境经济学研究需要开发新的模型来解释这一典型事实。从政策方面来看，“贫困-环境陷阱”的出现表明中国当前的环境治理需要采用区域间的协同和联动。

据2020年JCR影响因子报告，Energy Economics的影响因子为7.042,位列SSCI经济学学科376种期刊第12位。

(张中祥2019年6月在英国曼彻斯特大学举行的第24届欧洲环境与资源经济学家学会年会上报告该文)

On the co-evolution of PM_2.5 concentrations and income in China:

A joint distribution dynamics approach

Energy Economics,Volume 105, January 2022, 105706

Jian-Xin Wu，Ling-Yun He，ZhongXiang Zhang

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between income and PM_2.5 concentrations using a joint distribution dynamics approach. This approach is applied to a unique panel data of PM_2.5 concentrations and income for 285 Chinese cities over the period 2000–2018. Both static and dynamic distribution analyses show that poverty-environment trap exists in terms of PM_2.5 concentrations among Chinese prefectural and above (PAA) level cities. However, this effect cannot be observed between income and other two pollutants (SO₂ and CO₂ emissions). The analyses indicate that multiple equilibria are the major characteristics in the long-run relationship between income and PM_2.5 concentrations in China. Thus, new environmental models are expected to be developed to explain this new stylized fact. The findings provide strong support for taking more aggressive measures that consider income and urban environment simultaneously to reduce poverty and air pollutions together in the Chinese cities.

JEL classification

O13, O44, Q43, Q53, Q56, Q58

Keywords

Income, Urban air pollution, Poverty-environment trap, Distribution dynamics approach, China

文章全文参见链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321005570